Using expert system technology for new venture strategy planning

INTRODUCTION The research presented in this paper is concerned with the question “Can advanced information systems, such as expert knowledge-based systems (EKBS), help in new business strategy formulation?” More specifically, it focuses on how EKBS can help a user formulate a new venture business plan. EKBS are a branch of artificial intelligence which gained acceptance in business almost two decades ago (Bowerman and Glover, 1988). An EKBS is designed to replicate the functions performed by a human expert. By asking questions and by comparing the user’s answers with the information stored in the extensive expert knowledge database, the EKBS provides intelligent, knowledgeable answers (Mockler and Dologite, 1992). A prototype EKBS, the Business Planning Analyst (BPA), was built that focuses on helping a user explore new venture opportunities in the travel industry. The EKBS’ entire design is based on allowing a user to browse through competitive success profiles (CSP), such as the ones shown in Figure 1. These profiles represent scenarios of successful businesses in a selected industry and market segment, and are readily conceptualized as objects or instances of the class competitive success profile. These profiles are the heart of the EKBS design. Although the prototype is still evolving, some observations are possible. An EKBS for new venture planning could, for example: • Help to support idea generation by providing various industry and market segment specific CSP. • Evaluate and provide instant feedback on a user’s potential for successful entrepreneurship. • Guide a user through a systemic and thorough risk analysis of all the key factors involved in a new venture. • Provide an initial business plan that can be used as a starting point for implementing the new venture.